The facts are that the vote was relatively close but the mandate for EU exit was clear and the government will need to respond accordingly and prepare this path.
The rash of scare-mongering stories we are seeing today about the fallout from Brexit serve little purpose and always fail to reflect that markets, by their very nature, are volatile and that they do recover. Some of these comments have been somewhat disingenuous, generating more heat than light.
Given this tide of doom-mongering, what has impressed me so far is the resoluteness and calmness of most Financial Planners and wealth advisers. They have been almost alone in some financial quarters in stressing that there is no need to panic. Some have pointed out that few if any clients have rung them in panic (“I must have trained them well,” said one).
It’s a reminder that planners are not buy and sell merchants looking for a quick buck. They are looking to find long term investment value for their clients over many years and this is the essence of good financial advice. Most clients are likely to hold their investments for many years and a calm, long-term approach is nearly always the best option. I expect further calmness to break out as investors adjust to the new reality of life after the EU.
The shock to the markets we have seen so far today were largely due to a number of false assumptions due to some simply wrong pollsters who predicted a Remain vote. Because of this the Leave vote was inevitably more of a shock to the system but this will be temporary and markets will recover as more important factors, such as the state of the world economy, resume their importance.
Economically, there are many different views on the short term impact on the UK economy of Brexit. In our newsroom in the first few hours after the vote we’ve already received more than 100 news releases from fund groups all over the world, each with their own view on Brexit. Some warning that the UK will be tipped into recession (not quite sure why but it makes a good headline) while others say the impact will be neutral or beneficial in the long term as new business opportunities are opened up.
If I was hedging my bets I would say it really is too early to be certain what the short to medium term impact will be as no-one has any certainty and pundits are as wrong as they are right. The UK will inevitably head for another recession sooner or later but that’s down to economic cycles, not our departure from the UK. Some will blame this on Brexit, of course.
On the other side of the coin, I can see new business opportunities opening up. A modest decline in the pound would make exports cheaper and new trade agreements with rapidly growing markets could introduce added incentives for exporters. It was interesting to see the Chinese today say they were more than willing to work with a UK government inside or outside the EU.
Germany is an interesting issue and a key trading partner. Angela Merkel has clearly voiced concerns about a Brexit and would have preferred the UK to remain in the EU, naturally so, but I simply can’t see the Germans turning their back on trade with the UK. A fifth of all German car exports are sent to the UK, a fourth of all engineering exports. We’re still going to see those annoying ‘Vorsprung Durch Technik’ ads on our screen for some time to come and where Germany goes the rest of the (slightly smaller) EU will go.
Common sense will prevail, new trade deals will be signed, business will continue, markets will bounce back and Financial Planners will continue to advise clients to look to the long term.
Kevin O’Donnell is editor of Financial Planning Today and a financial journalist with over 20 years of experience
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