Nine in 10 advisers (88%) expect a rise in investment returns over the next decade, driven by an upward trend in equities, according to a new report.

Advisers expect returns to rise, despite the majority (62%) predicting an increase in geopolitical disruption, according to a survey of 200 advisers and Paraplanners by Scottish Widows.

Despite believing that equities will rise over the next decade, advisers were more cautious when asked how returns will hold up versus historic averages. A third (29%) said they expected them to trend lower, and 15% to trend higher.

Advisers saw geopolitical conflict (40%) as the single biggest threat to equity markets in the next five years. This was followed by trade barriers (29%). For firms managing over £500m of client assets, trade barriers were the largest concern (41%).

Respondents were split on bond returns, with a fifth (20%) expecting them to trend higher and over a quarter (27%) lower.

While over half (54%) of those surveyed expected market volatility to increase over the next five years, this is a considerable drop from the 74% who expected to see turbulent markets in 2024.

Just one in 10 advisers (11%) were concerned about a sustained downturn or recession.

Two-thirds (67%) of the advisers surveyed said they expected inflation to be sticky, staying at the same level or increasing through to 2030 but well-over a half (59%) anticipated lower interest rates in the same time period.

Jenny Davidson, intermediary wealth director at Scottish Widows, said: “Advisers anticipate a challenging run to 2030. Heightened international tensions, the potential of further trade tariffs and persistently sticky inflation are causing unease across markets. Advisers face a delicate balance of keeping their existing clients’ financial plans on track while navigating a shifting and challenging business environment.”

• Research in Finance surveyed 200 financial advisers on behalf of Scottish Widows between 21 July and 7 August 2025.