Bank of England's Paul Tucker forecasts inflation could remain persistently high
The Bank of England’s deputy governor Paul Tucker has forecast that inflation could remain at three per cent until the end of the year.
Speaking at the Association of Corporate Treasurers’ annual conference this week, Mr Tucker said inflation was not following the Bank’s expected path.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee had expected in February’s Inflation Report for inflation to fall to below two per cent by the end of the year.
However, this was contradicted when the Office for National Statistics reported this week that inflation had instead risen to 3.5 per cent, up from 3.4 per cent in the previous month.
Mr Tucker said: “The recent inflation data, particularly for goods prices, has come in a little stronger than expected. Sterling oil prices and wholesale gas prices have risen by more than five per cent since February.
“Together with duty changes announced in the March budget, that seems likely to leave the short-term outlook for inflation on a path a little higher than incorporated into the central projection described in the MPC’s February Inflation Report.”
He said one possibility for the increase was that companies had begun to rebuild their profit margins quicker than expected and adjusted to the shift in demand.
Despite his forecast, Mr Tucker reassured his audience that the bank would ensure inflation reached its target eventually.
“This is about the path inflation takes back to target, not whether it will return to target. The MPC will ensure that it does return to target and that medium-term inflation expectations are anchored to the target.”