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‘Challenging’ times ahead for financial services
Optimism in the financial services sector stabilised in the second quarter of 2018 following sharp falls in the previous two quarters, according to the latest CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey out today.
The quarterly survey of 100 firms found some stabilisation of confidence after falls in all but one quarter since the beginning of 2016.
Sentiment was unchanged in banking, building societies and investment management but improved in finance houses and general insurance.
Overall business volumes were described as “flat” but employment increased.
While building societies reported that volumes rebounded after falling in the previous quarter they were unchanged in banking and grew modestly in general insurance and investment management.
Looking ahead, overall business volumes were expected to pick up marginally over the coming three months.
Employment across the financial services sector as a whole increased for a second consecutive quarter at the fastest pace for a year.
The only sector cutting back headcount was building societies, which the CBI/PwC said reflected “weaker activity and profitability.”
Overall employment was expected to rise further over the coming quarter.
Investment intentions for the year ahead improved, with marketing budgets increasing and investment in IT anticipated to rise at the fastest pace in over three years, motivated by a mixture of new service provision, efficiency improvements and regulatory compliance.
With demand uncertainty diminishing, the share of firms investing to provide new services was the highest in three years.
Rain Newton-Smith, CBI chief economist, said: “Despite fairly subdued growth last quarter, it’s good to see financial firms stepping up hiring and investment, with digital technologies and new services seen as the best way to grow in a fiercely competitive environment.
“The UK’s financial services is the jewel in the crown of the British economy, and is an engine for growth in other parts of the economy across the country.
“Yet it’s impossible to ignore the fact that three years have now passed since we’ve seen any significant improvement in overall sentiment in financial services.
“In order for the sector to continue to attract investment and create jobs in the run up to Brexit and beyond, the Government must work hard with Brussels to agree a unique agreement that develops the sector after Brexit.”
Andrew Kail, head of financial services at PwC, said: “Optimism amongst financial services has remained subdued and growth in business volumes has weakened.
“Profitability was also stable, following strong growth over the last year.
“There is a hive of activity among firms bedding in sweeping regulatory requirements including GDPR and PSD2.”
Businesses expected regulatory spending, described as the “most important barrier to growth”, to continue increasing over the next 12 months.
Profits were “largely flat” in the quarter to June, with the lending sectors in particular seeing minimal or no growth, although parts of the insurance sector and investment management saw profits improve.
Overall profitability was expected to grow only moderately in the three months ahead.
The report said the broader economic backdrop for financial services was likely to “remain challenging in the year ahead, with UK economic growth expected to remain subdued due to weak consumer income growth and investment being held back by ongoing uncertainty.”