The Consumer Prices Index rate of inflation was 3% in the 12 months to February - unchanged from the previous month - but experts have warned that continuing oil price rises will potential push up the rate in coming months.
Figures from ONS today show that on a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.4% in February 2026, the same rate as in February 2025.
The wider Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 3.2% in the 12 months to February 2026, unchanged from the 12 months to January. On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 0.4% in February 2026, the same rate as in February 2025.
Clothing was the biggest upward driver of the monthly change in CPIH and CPI annual rates. In contrast motor fuels made the largest, offsetting, downward contribution when the figures were collected although in the last few weeks prices at the pump have risen by 20p or 30p.
Core CPIH (CPIH excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 3.4% in the 12 months to February 2026, up from 3.3% in the 12 months to January. The CPIH goods annual rate was unchanged at 1.6%, while the CPIH services annual rate eased slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%.
Core CPI (CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 3.2% in the 12 months to February 2026, up from 3.1% in the 12 months to January; the CPI goods annual rate was unchanged at 1.6%, while the CPI services annual rate eased slightly from 4.4% to 4.3%.
Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, said: “Today’s inflation reading of 3% on the headline measure and 3.2% on the core gauge needs to be read with caution. It captures February, so it predates the escalation in the Middle East at the very end of the month. Markets have already priced in that shift, which means this release is effectively looking in the rear‑view mirror.
“Oil sat around $70 throughout February but has traded above $90 for most of March. European gas prices are roughly 60% higher than their February levels. Businesses are already feeling the squeeze even if households are still shielded by the lagged effect of the energy price cap. Normally the Bank of England looks through energy volatility, but the severity of the current shock has forced policymakers to signal they are ready to act if necessary. Hopes of rate cuts this year have largely evaporated, and several hikes can no longer be ruled out.
“That is why today’s CPI print is old news. It shows an economy where inflation appeared to be stabilising and was expected to drift towards 2.1% in Q2, helped by earlier gas price declines and supportive energy policy. But that benign path has already been overtaken by what has been described by the IEA as the “greatest global energy security threat in history”. For that reason, February is likely to represent the low point for UK inflation for some time.
“The real question now is how persistent this new inflationary pulse becomes. In the short term the impact may be contained. But if elevated energy prices hold, they will flow through the EPC mechanism from July and risk setting off second‑round effects across goods, services and higher wage demands. In 2022, when labour was in short supply and before the dawn of the AI era, these demands were in many cases met. However in 2026 the balance of power has changed, with employers rather than employees holding the cards."
Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist, at Aberdeen, said: "Today’s inflation report is little more than a relic of the world before the Iran conflict. While the February report was broadly in line with expectations, and confirms that inflation was on a path back to 2%, the outlook for inflation has radically changed.
"Yesterday’s PMIs offered the first sign of how much the energy price shock is changing the inflation outlook, and this will start to show up in next month’s data, before building later this year when the energy price cap moves higher. Clearly the Bank of England is worried about inflation. And while the underlying weakness of the economy means rate cuts would be painful, policymakers may decide they do not have the luxury of “looking through” higher inflation, especially if the conflict does last longer than the market currently seems to be hoping.”
ends.