XPS’s Transfer Value Index fell 3.9% in January to £158,000, following two consecutive rises.

The decrease was driven by a fall in gilt yields during the month with long term inflation remaining flat.

The pension consultancy’s tandem Transfer Activity Index saw a marginal increase over January, to an annualised rate of 19 members in every 1,000 transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements.

This is the fifth consecutive month where transfer activity remained at a very low level.

The number of scam warning flags fell by 6% over the month with 84% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service in October raising at least one scam warning flag. This is only the third time the index has decreased to below 90% in the past year.

XPS said the fall could be the result of an increased number of annuities being purchased by members due to current market conditions resulting in favourable pricing. Such transfers are lower risk as no investment decisions are made on purchase of an annuity, so fewer scam warnings flags are raised.

The XPS Transfer Watch monitors how market developments have affected transfer values for an example member, as well as how many members are choosing to take a transfer value.

XPS Pensions Group’s Transfer Value Index shows the estimated Cash Transfer Value of a 64-year-old member with a pension of £10,000 a year with typical inflation increases. The value changes over time with market movements. Mortality assumptions are reviewed periodically.

XPS Pensions Group’s Transfer Activity Index represent the annualised proportion of members that transfer out of pension schemes administered by XPS. If replicated across all private sector, funded, UK, DB schemes this indicates that approximately 20,000 DB members leave their schemes each year

XPS Pensions Group’s Scam Flag Index tracks the percentage of monthly transfers reviewed by the businesses’ scam protection service that are identified as having warning ‘flags’ which indicate that the member is at risk of being scammed.