The 3.5% spike in the 12 month rate of CPI inflation - reported today by the ONS - means that the new State Pension will almost certainly rise by 3.9% from April under the earnings element of the Triple Lock.
This will push up the new State Pension to £250.70 a week, or £13,036.40 a year from April 2027, an annual rise of £488.80.
The old State Pension should increase from £184.90 per week (around £9,615 per year) to £192.10 per week (around £9,989 per year).
The figures are expected to be confirmed by Chancellor John Healey in his Budget next week.
The increases are about 0.4% higher than if only the inflation figure had been used, such as has been proposed as part of an overhaul to the Triple Lock from 2030 by Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
Jon Greer, head of retirement policy at wealth manager and Financial Planner Quilter, said that while the Triple Lock may now have a potential expiry date, it will likely continue to boost pensioners’ incomes considerably before 2030.
He said: "Andy Burnham has confirmed that the Triple Lock will be replaced from 2030 with a guarantee based on the higher of inflation or 2.5%, alongside a longer-term earnings link that has yet to be set out in detail.
“While that new framework is likely to be less generous than the current system, if earnings continue to outpace inflation over the next few years, pensioners could still benefit from further meaningful increases before the reforms take effect. In that sense, the impact of the earnings link will continue to be felt long after the current version of the triple lock has gone.”
Andrew King, pensions specialist at wealth manager Evelyn Partners, expected to see more changes made to state pensions in the coming years.
He said: ‘Double or triple lock, the ongoing crunch in the public finances is likely to leave future governments grappling with a soaring state pension bill unless other steps are taken to restrict it.
“For instance, we could well see the next increase in the State Pension age, from 67 to 68, brought forward from the scheduled 2044/46 period, in an effort to address the affordability crisis. That could catch out the cohort currently 55 or younger, who might have to work longer or rethink retirement funding.”
According to research from Standard Life, less than half (49%) of workers between the age of 18 and 65 believe that State Pension will be available to everyone when they retire.
More than half (51%) of those surveyed said they expected to continue working beyond State Pension age, up from 49% in 2025. Millennials are the most likely generation to anticipate working later in life, at 58%.