Savers denied early Christmas gift as deflation sets in
There will be no early Christmas present for savers from the Bank of England, analysts said today, after inflation remained negative for another month.
Experts said the committee with powers to change the bank rate has another reason to “drag their feet” after The Office for National Statistics announced inflation remained at -0.1% in October.
Richard Campbell, head of the Consumer Price Index at the ONS, said: “This is now the ninth month running that CPI has been at or very close to zero.”
Laith Khalaf, a senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Core inflation (rose slightly from 1% to 1.1%) is likewise weak, so savers are unlikely to get an early Christmas present from the Bank of England following its next policy meeting in early December.”
Kevin Caley, managing director of peer-to-peer lender ThinCats, said on the UK inflation rate: “Low inflation continues to be the thorn in the side of the Bank of England, which now has another good reason to drag its feet on interest rates.
“We’re unlikely to see a rise in the base rate for some time now, forcing those reliant on their investment income to consider alternative investments. With significant volatility in financial markets, many investors are putting their money into property, unperturbed by the economic fallout the last time the property market overheated.”
Peter Cameron, associate fund manager, EdenTree Investment Management:
“With inflation still in negative territory and the global outlook arguably deteriorating, there doesn’t appear to be any immediate pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates.
“But inflation could start to pick up fairly quickly next year as the impact of the falling oil price washes out of the numbers and if current levels of wage growth are sustained. Therefore rates lift-off is definitely on the horizon, but probably not until the second quarter of 2016.”
Maike Currie, associate investment director, at Fidelity International said: “The Bank of England’s suggestion that interest rates may stay at rock bottom throughout next year may just be the start of it. Interest rates could stay low for the foreseeable future if low inflation turns out to be less cyclical than structural.
“In a low interest-rate environment, investors continue to view equity income as a safe haven and a rare source of yield.”
Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfacts.co.uk, said the savings Best Buys charts were in a “sorry state at the moment”.
She said: “The gloomy savings market has hardly been brightened by the news that base rate was voted to remain on hold for a further month with the possibility of a rise in the near-future looking ever more unlikely.
“However, it is worth pointing out that the old link between base rate rises and savings rate increases has been disrupted by lending initiatives such as the Funding for Lending Scheme. There is therefore not much of a guarantee that a hike to base rate will directly influence savings rates.”